{"id":136484,"date":"2022-11-30T14:08:19","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T19:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/?p=136484"},"modified":"2022-11-30T14:08:23","modified_gmt":"2022-11-30T19:08:23","slug":"triple-dip-la-nina-persiste-prolongando-la-sequia-y-las-inundaciones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/?p=136484","title":{"rendered":"Triple-Dip La Ni\u00f1a persiste, prolongando la sequ\u00eda y las inundaciones"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ginebra, 30 de noviembre de 2022 – Es probable que el evento de La Ni\u00f1a, inusualmente obstinado y prolongado, dure hasta el final del invierno del hemisferio norte\/verano del hemisferio sur. La primera \u201ctriple inmersi\u00f3n\u201d de La Ni\u00f1a (tres a\u00f1os consecutivos) del siglo XXI seguir\u00e1 afectando los patrones de temperatura y precipitaci\u00f3n y exacerbando las sequ\u00edas e inundaciones en diferentes partes del mundo, seg\u00fan la Organizaci\u00f3n Meteorol\u00f3gica Mundial (OMM).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Actualizaci\u00f3n de El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a de la OMM indica un 75 % de probabilidad de que La Ni\u00f1a persista durante diciembre-febrero de 2022\/2023 y un 60 % de probabilidad durante enero-marzo de 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Existe un 55 % de probabilidad de que surjan condiciones ENOS neutrales (ni El Ni\u00f1o ni La Ni\u00f1a) durante febrero-abril de 2023, aumentando a alrededor del 70 % durante marzo-mayo, seg\u00fan la Actualizaci\u00f3n, que se basa en aportes de expertos y pron\u00f3sticos. modelos de todo el mundo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Es solo la tercera vez desde 1950 que ha habido una triple ca\u00edda de La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a se refiere al enfriamiento a gran escala de las temperaturas de la superficie del oc\u00e9ano en el Oc\u00e9ano Pac\u00edfico ecuatorial central y oriental, junto con cambios en la circulaci\u00f3n atmosf\u00e9rica tropical, a saber, vientos, presi\u00f3n y precipitaciones. Por lo general, tiene los impactos opuestos en el tiempo y el clima que El Ni\u00f1o, que es la fase c\u00e1lida de la llamada Oscilaci\u00f3n del Sur de El Ni\u00f1o (ENOS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a es un fen\u00f3meno natural. Pero se est\u00e1 produciendo en un contexto de cambio clim\u00e1tico inducido por el hombre, que est\u00e1 aumentando las temperaturas globales, haciendo que nuestro clima sea m\u00e1s extremo y afectando los patrones de precipitaciones estacionales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a – 22 de noviembre<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crisis humanitaria<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl Pac\u00edfico tropical ha estado en un estado de La Ni\u00f1a, con breves interrupciones, desde septiembre de 2020, pero esto solo ha tenido un impacto de enfriamiento limitado y temporal en las temperaturas globales\u201d, dijo el Secretario General de la OMM, Prof. Petteri Taalas. \u201cLos \u00faltimos ocho a\u00f1os ser\u00e1n los m\u00e1s calurosos registrados y el aumento del nivel del mar y el calentamiento de los oc\u00e9anos se han acelerado\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de La Ni\u00f1a, tanto 2022 como 2021 fueron m\u00e1s c\u00e1lidos que cualquier a\u00f1o anterior a 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEste evento persistente de La Ni\u00f1a est\u00e1 prolongando las condiciones de sequ\u00eda e inundaci\u00f3n en las regiones afectadas. La comunidad internacional est\u00e1 especialmente preocupada por la cat\u00e1strofe humanitaria que se est\u00e1 desarrollando para millones de personas en el Cuerno de \u00c1frica, provocada por la sequ\u00eda m\u00e1s larga y severa de la historia reciente\u201d, dijo el profesor Taalas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Una alerta de m\u00faltiples agencias para el Cuerno de \u00c1frica advirti\u00f3 recientemente que un mal comienzo de las lluvias de octubre a diciembre ha puesto en marcha una quinta temporada consecutiva de sequ\u00eda. La OMM fue uno de los contribuyentes a la alerta, que advirti\u00f3 que tambi\u00e9n se considera probable que llueva por debajo del promedio durante la temporada de lluvias de marzo a mayo de 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e1s de 20 millones de personas ya padecen una gran inseguridad alimentaria en Kenia, Somalia y Etiop\u00eda, y algunas partes de Somalia pueden enfrentar el riesgo de hambruna para fin de a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLa OMM continuar\u00e1 brindando informaci\u00f3n personalizada al sector humanitario y apoyando sectores sensibles como la agricultura, la seguridad alimentaria, la salud y la reducci\u00f3n del riesgo de desastres. La OMM tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 implementando un nuevo plan de acci\u00f3n, presentado en la COP27, para garantizar que todos tengan acceso a sistemas de alerta temprana en los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os para protegerlos contra los peligros relacionados con nuestro tiempo, clima y agua\u201d, dijo el Prof. Taalas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los patrones de precipitaci\u00f3n en muchas regiones este a\u00f1o han dado lugar a las caracter\u00edsticas de La Ni\u00f1a: condiciones m\u00e1s secas de lo habitual en la Patagonia en Am\u00e9rica del Sur y el suroeste de Am\u00e9rica del Norte, as\u00ed como en el este de \u00c1frica, seg\u00fan el informe provisional Estado del Clima Global 2022 de la OMM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ha sido m\u00e1s h\u00famedo de lo habitual en el sur de \u00c1frica, el norte de Am\u00e9rica del Sur, el continente mar\u00edtimo y el este de Australia. Las lluvias monz\u00f3nicas m\u00e1s intensas y prolongadas en el sureste de Asia est\u00e1n asociadas con La Ni\u00f1a. As\u00ed, Pakist\u00e1n experiment\u00f3 lluvias devastadoras en julio y agosto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pron\u00f3stico del clima estacional mundial<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a son los principales, pero no los \u00fanicos, impulsores del sistema clim\u00e1tico de la Tierra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adem\u00e1s de la Actualizaci\u00f3n ENOS establecida desde hace mucho tiempo, la OMM ahora tambi\u00e9n publica Actualizaciones clim\u00e1ticas estacionales globales (GSCU) peri\u00f3dicas, que incorporan las influencias de los otros principales impulsores del clima, como la Oscilaci\u00f3n del Atl\u00e1ntico Norte, la Oscilaci\u00f3n del \u00c1rtico y el Dipolo del Oc\u00e9ano \u00cdndico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las Actualizaciones clim\u00e1ticas estacionales globales y ENSO se basan en pron\u00f3sticos de los Centros mundiales de producci\u00f3n de pron\u00f3sticos a largo plazo de la OMM y est\u00e1n disponibles para ayudar a los gobiernos, las Naciones Unidas, los tomadores de decisiones y las partes interesadas en sectores sensibles al clima para movilizar preparativos y proteger vidas y medios de subsistencia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Triple-Dip La Ni\u00f1a persists, prolonging drought and flooding<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tags: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o \/ La Ni\u00f1a<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

30<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Published <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

30 November 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Press Release Number: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

30112022 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cooling impact is temporary and limited<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geneva, 30 November 2022 – The unusually stubborn and protracted La Ni\u00f1a event is likely to last until the end of the northern hemisphere winter\/southern hemisphere summer.  The first \u201ctriple-dip\u201d La Ni\u00f1a (three consecutive years) of the 21st century will continue to affect temperature and precipitation patterns and exacerbate drought and flooding in different parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update<\/a> indicates about a 75% chance that La Ni\u00f1a will persist during December-February 2022\/2023 and 60% chance during January-March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a) emerging during February-April 2023, increasing to about 70% during March-May, according to the Update, which is based on input from experts and forecast models around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is only the third time since 1950 that there has been a triple-dip La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a refers to the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Ni\u00f1o, which is the warm phase of the so-called El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a is a natural phenomenon. But it is taking place against a background of  human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, making our weather more extreme and affecting seasonal rainfall patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"La<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Humanitarian crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe tropical Pacific has been in a La Ni\u00f1a state, with short interruptions, since September 2020 \u2013 but this has only had a limited and temporary cooling impact on global temperatures,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. \u201cThe past eight years are set to be the hottest on record and sea level rise and ocean warming has accelerated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite La Ni\u00f1a, both 2022 and 2021 were warmer than any year prior to 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis persistent La Ni\u00f1a event is prolonging drought and flood conditions in affected regions.  The international community is especially concerned about the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe for millions of people in the Horn of Africa, driven by the longest and most severe drought in recent history,\u201d said Prof. Taalas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A multi-agency alert<\/a> for the Horn of Africa recently warned that a 5th consecutive season of drought has been set in motion by a poor start to October \u2013 December rains. WMO was one of the contributors to the alert, which cautioned that below-average rainfall is also considered likely during the March\u2013May 2023 rainy season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already, more than 20 million people are highly food insecure in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia and some parts of Somalia may face the risk of famine by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWMO will continue to provide tailored information to the humanitarian sector and to support sensitive sectors like agriculture, food security, health and disaster risk reduction. WMO is also implementing a new action plan, presented at COP27, to ensure that everyone should have access to early warning systems in the next five years to protect them against hazards related to our weather, climate and water,\u201d said Prof. Taalas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precipitation patterns in many regions this year have born the hallmarks of La Ni\u00f1a: drier than usual conditions in Patagonia in South America and southwest North America, as well as East Africa,  according to WMO\u2019s provisional State of the Global Climate 2022 report.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has been wetter than usual in Southern Africa, northern South America, the maritime continent and eastern Australia. More intense and longer monsoon rainfall in southeast Asia is associated with La Ni\u00f1a. Thus, Pakistan experienced devastating rains in July and August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global Seasonal Climate outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are major \u2013 but not the only – drivers of the Earth\u2019s climate system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates<\/a> (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ENSO and Global Seasonal Climate Updates are based on forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and are available to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers and stakeholders in climate sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the stubborn La Ni\u00f1a in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, widespread warmer than-average sea-surface temperatures elsewhere are predicted to dominate the forecast of air temperatures for December to February 2022\/2023. This will contribute to above normal temperatures over land areas in the Northern Hemisphere except for north-western North America. The largest increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures are along the Arctic coast of Asia, northern parts of central America, the eastern Maritime Continent, and New Zealand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precipitation predictions for December to February are similar to typical rainfall effects of La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Probabilistic<\/td><\/tr>
Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the season December-February 2022-2023. The tercile category with the highest forecast probability is indicated by shaded areas. The most likely category for below-normal, above-normal and near-normal is depicted in blue, red and grey shadings respectively for temperature, and orange, green and grey shadings respectively for precipitation. White areas indicate equal chances for all categories in both cases. The baseline period is 1993\u20132009<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System\u2019s authoritative voice
on Weather, Climate and Water<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

public.wmo.int<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ginebra, 30 de noviembre de 2022 – Es probable que el evento de La Ni\u00f1a, inusualmente obstinado y prolongado, dure hasta el final del invierno del hemisferio norte\/verano del hemisferio sur. La primera \u201ctriple inmersi\u00f3n\u201d de La Ni\u00f1a (tres a\u00f1os consecutivos) del siglo XXI seguir\u00e1 afectando los patrones de temperatura y precipitaci\u00f3n y exacerbando las […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":136485,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ecologia"],"acf":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/sportseco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/50859352411_3de8cd3893_o.jpg?fit=720%2C443&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=136484"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":136487,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136484\/revisions\/136487"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/136485"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=136484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=136484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=136484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}