{"id":148795,"date":"2023-07-07T10:21:21","date_gmt":"2023-07-07T14:21:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/?p=148795"},"modified":"2023-07-07T10:28:44","modified_gmt":"2023-07-07T14:28:44","slug":"modifican-promnosticos-sobre-temporada-de-huracanes-del-atlantico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/?p=148795","title":{"rendered":"Modifican pronosticos sobre temporada de Huracanes del Atl\u00e1ntico"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ahora se pronostica que la temporada de huracanes del Atl\u00e1ntico de 2023 ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s activa que el promedio a pesar de El Ni\u00f1o, pero tambi\u00e9n m\u00e1s impredecible, seg\u00fan las \u00faltimas perspectivas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Una actualizaci\u00f3n publicada el jueves por el equipo de pron\u00f3stico tropical de la Universidad Estatal de Colorado prev\u00e9 18 tormentas, nueve de las cuales se espera que se conviertan en huracanes y cuatro de las cuales alcanzar\u00e1n al menos la categor\u00eda 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este es un aumento de tres tormentas, dos huracanes y un gran hurac\u00e1n desde su pron\u00f3stico anterior, que se public\u00f3 a principios de junio. El aumento de tormentas y el panorama general tiene en cuenta cuatro tormentas que ya han ocurrido este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otras actualizaciones de pron\u00f3sticos recientes se pueden encontrar a continuaci\u00f3n, incluidas las de NOAA, The Weather Company y Atmospheric G2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arlene, Bret y Cindy se formaron en junio, y en enero se desarroll\u00f3 una tormenta subtropical sin nombre que fue mejorada retroactivamente por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes en mayo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La cuarta tormenta de la temporada no suele llegar hasta mediados de agosto, seg\u00fan el NHC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los historiales de seguimiento de las tormentas de la temporada de huracanes del Atl\u00e1ntico de 2023 al 6 de julio de 2023.
(Datos de seguimiento: NOAA\/NHC)
Dos factores principales est\u00e1n en juego en esta temporada de huracanes: un fortalecimiento de El Ni\u00f1o y temperaturas extremadamente c\u00e1lidas del agua del Atl\u00e1ntico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El calor del oc\u00e9ano Atl\u00e1ntico est\u00e1 fuera de serie
Uno de esos factores est\u00e1 dominando en este momento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un factor importante que contribuy\u00f3 al mes de junio m\u00e1s c\u00e1lido registrado en el planeta fue el calor r\u00e9cord de junio en la cuenca del Atl\u00e1ntico, donde se forman huracanes y tormentas tropicales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abEste calor an\u00f3malo es la raz\u00f3n por la cual el pron\u00f3stico de huracanes estacionales de CSU ha aumentado, a pesar de (a) un El Ni\u00f1o probablemente robusto\u00bb, escribi\u00f3 Phil Klotzbach, cient\u00edfico tropical y l\u00edder del equipo de pron\u00f3stico de CSU, en un tuit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esto es importante porque suponiendo que otros factores sean iguales, cuanto m\u00e1s profunda y c\u00e1lida sea el agua del oc\u00e9ano, m\u00e1s fuerte puede volverse una tormenta o un hurac\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por lo general, hay una bolsa de agua m\u00e1s fr\u00eda al principio de la temporada de huracanes desde las Islas de Cabo Verde hasta las Bermudas y el norte de las Islas de Sotavento. Las olas tropicales que llegan a esta bolsa de aguas m\u00e1s fr\u00edas a menudo sucumben a condiciones hostiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este calor que estamos viendo en este momento es m\u00e1s t\u00edpico de agosto con mucho tiempo para un calentamiento adicional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta agua inusualmente c\u00e1lida para junio fue un factor detr\u00e1s del desarrollo de las tormentas tropicales Bret y Cindy, la primera vez que se desarrollaron dos tormentas sobre la franja del Oc\u00e9ano Atl\u00e1ntico entre \u00c1frica y las Antillas Menores en junio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pero, \u00bfqu\u00e9 pasa con El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otro factor podr\u00eda tener el efecto contrario de las c\u00e1lidas aguas del Atl\u00e1ntico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las aguas ecuatoriales del Pac\u00edfico hab\u00edan estado m\u00e1s fr\u00edas que el promedio durante las \u00faltimas tres temporadas de huracanes, una condici\u00f3n conocida como La Ni\u00f1a. Pero esa Ni\u00f1a de larga duraci\u00f3n finalmente desapareci\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u200bn El Ni\u00f1o fue declarado a principios de junio y podr\u00eda volverse fuerte en el coraz\u00f3n de la temporada de huracanes: agosto a octubre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La raz\u00f3n por la que esta franja de agua alejada de la cuenca del Atl\u00e1ntico es importante es que es una de las influencias m\u00e1s fuertes en la actividad de la temporada de huracanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En las temporadas de huracanes de El Ni\u00f1o, a menudo se producen vientos cortantes m\u00e1s fuertes al menos sobre el Mar Caribe y algunas partes adyacentes de la cuenca del Atl\u00e1ntico. Esto tiende a limitar el n\u00famero y la intensidad de tormentas y huracanes, especialmente si El Ni\u00f1o es m\u00e1s fuerte, como investigamos en un art\u00edculo de marzo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, dado que este El Ni\u00f1o a\u00fan se encuentra en sus etapas iniciales, a\u00fan no ha ejercido fuerza en el patr\u00f3n clim\u00e1tico descrito anteriormente, pero puede hacerlo cada vez m\u00e1s durante el resto de la temporada de huracanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab(A) la alta probabilidad de un fuerte El Ni\u00f1o es la raz\u00f3n por la cual el pron\u00f3stico de huracanes de CSU no es para a\u00fan m\u00e1s actividad dado (a) un Atl\u00e1ntico c\u00e1lido r\u00e9cord\u00bb, escribi\u00f3 Klotzbach en otro Tweet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un equipo de pron\u00f3stico de The Weather Company y Atmospheric G2 tambi\u00e9n not\u00f3 una tendencia en las temporadas de huracanes de El Ni\u00f1o de menos tormentas en el Golfo de M\u00e9xico y m\u00e1s tormentas que se enroscan hacia el norte, luego hacia el noreste hacia el Oc\u00e9ano Atl\u00e1ntico abierto o impactan partes de la costa este.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eso se debe a que la altura de las Bermudas tiende a ser m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil, y tambi\u00e9n se debe a una disminuci\u00f3n m\u00e1s persistente de los vientos en los niveles altos en el sureste de los EE. UU. durante El Ni\u00f1o, seg\u00fan el equipo de pron\u00f3stico de TWC\/AG2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un patr\u00f3n t\u00edpico \u00abrecurvo\u00bb que puede presentarse en la temporada de huracanes.
Dados estos dos factores en competencia, un escenario plausible para el resto de la temporada de huracanes es que haya m\u00e1s tormentas en el este y centro del Oc\u00e9ano Atl\u00e1ntico, aliment\u00e1ndose del agua inusualmente c\u00e1lida, pero tal vez menos en el Mar Caribe y el Golfo de M\u00e9xico, suponiendo que sean m\u00e1s hostiles. La cizalladura del viento de El Ni\u00f1o se pone en marcha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u200bhe 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is now forecast to be more active than average despite an El Ni\u00f1o, but also more unpredictable, according to the latest outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An update released Thursday by the Colorado State University tropical forecast team calls for 18 storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes and four of which will reach at least Category 3 status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an increase of three storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane since their previous outlook, which was released in early June. The increase in storms and the overall outlook takes into account four storms that have already occurred this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O\u200bther recent forecast updates can be found below, including those from NOAA, as well as The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
The latest 2023 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks, as of July 6. The Colorado State University outlook includes four storms that have already formed prior to July 6.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed in June, and an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January<\/a> that was retroactively upgraded by the National Hurricane Center in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fourth storm of the season doesn’t typically arrive until mid-August<\/a>, according to the NHC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
The track histories of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season storms as of July 6, 2023.(Track data: NOAA\/NHC)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two major factors are in play this hurricane season: a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o and extremely warm Atlantic water temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atlantic Ocean Warmth Is Off The Charts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

O\u200bne of those factors is dominating right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major contributor to the planet’s hottest June on record<\/a> was record June warmth in the Atlantic Basin where hurricanes and tropical storms form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abThis anomalous warmth is why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast has increased, despite (a) likely robust El Ni\u00f1o,\u00bb wrote Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist and lead of the CSU forecast team, in a tweet<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u200blotzbach noted the scope and magnitude of this anomalous warmth as of late June was well beyond what was seen in other warm ocean hurricane seasons such as 2020, 2010, 2005, 1998 and 1995.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is important because assuming other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer the ocean water, the stronger a storm or hurricane can become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u200bypically, there is a cooler pocket of water early in hurricane season from the Cabo Verde Islands to Bermuda to the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical waves<\/a> reaching this pocket of colder waters often succumb to otherwise hostile conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u200bhis warmth we’re seeing right now is more typical of August<\/a> with plenty of time for additional warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unusually warm water for June was one factor behind the development of tropical storms Bret and Cindy<\/a>, the first time two storms developed over the strip of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But What About El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Another factor could have the opposite effect of the warm Atlantic waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pacific equatorial waters had been cooler than average during the past three hurricane seasons \u2013 a condition known as La Ni\u00f1a. B\u200but that long-lasting La Ni\u00f1a finally disappeared<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u200bn El Ni\u00f1o was declared in early June<\/a> and could become strong by the heart of the hurricane season: August through October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it’s one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In El Ni\u00f1o hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Ni\u00f1o is stronger, as we investigated in a March article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

H\u200bowever, since this El Ni\u00f1o is still in its early stages, it hasn’t yet flexed its muscle on the weather pattern described above, but may do so increasingly during the remainder of the hurricane season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab\u200b(A) high chance of a robust El Ni\u00f1o is why CSU’s hurricane forecast is not for even more activity given (a) record warm Atlantic,\u00bb wrote Klotzbach in another Tweet<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A forecast team at The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 also noted a tendency in El Ni\u00f1o hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u200bhat’s because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it’s also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Ni\u00f1os, according to the TWC\/AG2 forecast team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/
A typical \u00abrecurve\u00bb pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Given these two competing factors, one plausible scenario to the rest of the hurricane season is more storm tracks in the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean, feeding off the unusually warm water, but perhaps fewer in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, assuming more hostile wind shear from El Ni\u00f1o kicks into gear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u200brepare The Same Every Hurricane Season<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

What these outlooks cannot tell you is whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A season with fewer storms or hurricanes can still deliver the one storm that makes a season destructive or devastating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2015, one of the strongest El Ni\u00f1os on record reduced the hurricane tally to four that season. However, one of those was Joaquin<\/a>, which devastated the central Bahamas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In
In this aerial photo, homes are seen under the floodwaters caused by Hurricane Joaquin in the Southern area of Long Island, Bahamas, Monday, Oct. 5, 2015.(AP Photo\/Tim Aylen)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And i\u200bt doesn’t take a hurricane to be impactful, especially regarding rainfall flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in the 2015 season, T\u200bropical Storm Erika was ripped apart by wind shear and dry air near the Dominican Republic. But before that happened, it triggered deadly and destructive flooding in Dominica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

weather.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ahora se pronostica que la temporada de huracanes del Atl\u00e1ntico de 2023 ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s activa que el promedio a pesar de El Ni\u00f1o, pero tambi\u00e9n m\u00e1s impredecible, seg\u00fan las \u00faltimas perspectivas. Una actualizaci\u00f3n publicada el jueves por el equipo de pron\u00f3stico tropical de la Universidad Estatal de Colorado prev\u00e9 18 tormentas, nueve de las cuales […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":148796,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-148795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ecologia"],"acf":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/sportseco.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/hurricane-season-forecast-csu-july.webp?fit=980%2C551&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=148795"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148795\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":148801,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148795\/revisions\/148801"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/148796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=148795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=148795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sportseco.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=148795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}